The Daily Telegraph's economics columnist analyses three areas of contention which still exist between Britain and the EU as the December deadline looms.
On fish, he writes: " I cannot believe that a free trade deal is going to fail over fish. It is widely recognised on the Continent that the French attempt to preserve current access to UK waters is ridiculous. There ought to be the possibility for some sort of arrangement which reinstates UK control yet allows the French some sort of temporary and/or limited concession."
"Similarly, it is of supreme importance politically that the UK does not continue to be subject to the European Court of Justice with regard to trade issues or indeed anything else.
Far from being an arcane sideshow, this is the essence of the economic case for Brexit. Of course, it will be advantageous not to have to lob tribute across the channel each year to fund our lords and masters. Equally, we stand to gain from operating an independent trade policy, fashioned according to the UK’s interests."
He also casts doubt on the long-term benefits of continued membership of the single market which, as a proportion of global GDP is shrinking year by year.
But predictions are notoriously hard to predict at the best of times and the coronavirus has made them a hundred times more difficult.
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